Is global biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse a national security issue?

The evidence that climate change and biodiversity loss are occurring on a significant scale is overwhelming. The argument has shifted from claiming that it’s not happening to arguing that it’s all just too expensive to combat.

The Joint Intelligence Committee report on national security and ecosystem collapse published in January 2026 is interesting as it is not written from an environmentalist perspective. The report was produced by intelligence officials and is a hard nosed look at security threats.

According to the report, ecosystem degradation is occurring across all regions and ecosystems. The average size of monitored wildlife populations declined by 73% between 1970-2020. Populations of vertebrate species have declined by an average of 68% since 1970. Freshwater ecosystem species populations have shown the largest losses, falling 84% in the same period. The rate of extinction is tens to hundreds of times higher than the average over the past 10 million years and there is a realistic possibility that some ecosystems start to collapse by 2030.

There are several main areas of risk highlighted. Conflict and military escalation will become more likely, both within and between states, as groups compete for arable land, food and water. They will therefore take action directly or indirectly which could threaten UK interests. We have seen an example of the sort of thing that might happen in relation to oil and fertiliser as a result of the war in the Middle East.

If political and economic instability grows in areas where food and water is scarce or if there are increased natural disasters linked to climate breakdown this will likely lead to significant increases in migration compared to what we are seeing currently. This growth is also likely to be associated with a rise in organised crime.

The UK relies on global markets for its food and for fertiliser and imports 40% of its food from overseas. Full self sufficiency would require very substantial investment in farming and the food system. Without significant increases in UK food system resilience, it is unlikely the UK would be able to feed itself if ecosystem collapse drives geopolitical competition for food.

The publication of the Joint Intelligence Committee report was delayed by the government as it was felt to be too negative and politically sensitive. The report was only published as a result of a freedom of information request.

To find the report Google ‘national security ecosystem report’

Also Google ‘Professor Tim Lang’ to see how serious our food security issues are